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Turkey is going to polls this Sunday, which makes Turkish Lira, open for heavy volatility post weekend. As of latest poll, ruling AKP party, headed by President Erdogan is set to win Sunday's election, however even if that come true margin of winning will be all that matters.
A higher margin would mean, authoritarian President Erdogan will be extending his authority.
- Turkish Lira, which is currently trading at 2.665 against dollar, might lose further steam even if Mr. Erdogan wins the election.
- The government has repeatedly criticized Central bank's decision making and prevented it from raising interest rate before the election, which was required to prevent Lira's losing streak and curb inflation.
- Lira has depreciated more than 14% against dollar this year so far, and down about 27% in last 1 year. Turkish Borsa 100 is down more than 6% in last few weeks. 10 year govt. bond yield is hovering above 9%.
- Turkey is one of those countries with high levels of short term dollar denominated debt and Lira's losing streak is not helping to improve the situation.
Lira will not be at peace unless Turkey's economic conditions improve.
