Politics
Add as a preferred source on GoogleA distinct contract for a Dec. 1 departure deadline was priced at 20.5%; each figure applies to a separate outcome.
Two prediction-market contracts assign different prices to U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick leaving office by separate deadlines, offering a gauge of market expectations for the tenure of a senior U.S. official.
A contract covering a possible departure by Jan. 1, 2027, carried a 51.5% price. The separate Dec. 1 contract was listed at 20.5%. Those readings refer to different outcomes; they do not show one contract’s price changing over time.
Kalshi market prices put an 86.3% probability on a 4%-4.25% Federal Reserve target range at the Dec. 9 meeting, above the current 3.75%-4% range.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Treasury, War and State, along with the U.S. Trade Representative, had backed adding Singapore-based Megaspeed to the Entity List for months.
Kalshi market prices put an 85.9% probability on a 4%-4.25% Federal Reserve target range on Dec. 9, with a higher range drawing the largest share for January.
