Arab-led parties could hold the balance in Israel’s Oct. 27 election, as a new Madad poll leaves both major blocs short of a majority and their leaders rule out including them in coalitions.
Madad’s survey, fielded Oct. 13 and published Oct. 14, assigned 51 seats to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc and 50 to the opposition bloc led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot. It projected nine seats for the Joint List and six for Ra’am, giving Arab-led parties 15 in total, alongside four seats for The Reservists, a party positioned between the blocs. The poll covered 1,018 respondents and reported a maximum sampling error of 3.1 percentage points at 95% confidence. These are estimates of voting intentions, not election results.
That distribution could give Arab-led parties leverage in negotiations if neither large bloc assembles a majority. The Associated Press reported that Netanyahu and Eisenkot have ruled out bringing Arab-led parties into their coalitions, while outside support for a minority government remains a possible arrangement.
A party needs 3.25% of valid votes to enter the Knesset under Israel’s proportional system.
Reuters reported that Ra’am leader Mansour Abbas wants a role in forming a new government and that Ahmad Tibi, a Joint List leader, has discussed supporting one from outside a coalition. Ra’am joined the coalition formed under former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett in 2021, offering a recent precedent for Arab-party participation in government.
Turnout could affect whether parties reach their projections. The Israel Democracy Institute calculated that 53.2% of Arab and Druze voters cast ballots in the 2022 election. Israel’s Central Bureau of Statistics estimated that Arab residents made up 21.1% of the population as of April 22, 2026; that figure does not represent eligible voters. Israel votes for the 120-seat Knesset on Oct. 27, when the results will determine seat totals for coalition talks.
