An October survey by GEP and S&P Global found manufacturers in North America and Europe building precautionary inventories against price and supply risks, while GEP said the buffers could later weigh on orders.
The GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index draws on purchasing managers’ index (PMI) surveys covering about 27,000 businesses in more than 40 countries. Its six measures include PMI data, company commentary and commodity price and supply indicators. A positive regional reading means supply-chain capacity is under strain.
GEP said reports of stock-building prompted by price or supply concerns reached a historic high worldwide. North America’s safety-stockpiling indicator more than doubled from September, reaching its highest level in five months. BCR Publishing reported that the increase refers to GEP’s indicator and does not mean the physical value of inventories doubled.
Regional readings moved in different directions. Asia’s reading climbed to 1.67 from 1.49, reaching a four-month high, while Europe’s rose to 0.78 from 0.66. North America’s fell to 1.03 from 1.13, and the U.K.’s declined to 0.39 from 0.59.
Global purchasing growth moderated, though demand for manufacturing inputs remained resilient, GEP said. Shortage reports stayed above their long-run average for an eighth consecutive month, but were at their mildest level since March. Survey respondents continued to flag oil, electronic and electrical components, and metals as scarce. Staff-related backlogs were at their lowest point since February 2025.
Transportation costs rose for a second month in a row as global oil prices increased during October, and the related index reached a four-month high. GEP said added inventories tie up working capital and warned that purchasing could slow once companies have built sufficient stocks, weighing on manufacturing and the wider economy in 2027. John Piatek, GEP’s vice president of consulting, said manufacturers were building buffers “to protect production.”
GEP scheduled its next index release for 8 a.m. ET on Dec. 10, 2026.
