US–Latin America trade could reach $1.8 trillion by 2035 through coordinated efforts by investors, businesses and governments, consulting firm McKinsey & Company said in research published Oct. 18.
That would require annual trade growth of 2.3%, compared with a projected baseline of 1.5% to 2%, McKinsey said. Its publication is titled “The hidden opportunity in the next $2 trillion of US–Latin America trade.”
McKinsey put baseline trade at $1.7 trillion to $1.8 trillion by 2035, placing the coordinated approach at the upper end of that range. The authors said tariffs, inflation, uncertainty around trade agreements and other challenges could affect growth rates.
The analysis drew on US Census Bureau international trade data accessed in September and US Bureau of Economic Analysis services data published July 7. It examined trade patterns since 2015, sector changes between 2019 and 2025, and business growth from 2017 to 2023.
The authors examined exchanges of goods, services, capital, data, talent and intangibles, including culture and ideas. They defined the corridor as the United States, mainland Central and South America, Cuba and the Dominican Republic.
McKinsey estimated that the corridor generated $1.5 trillion in trade in 2025 and accounted for almost one-fifth of total US trade activity. Trade grew about 3% annually in real terms since 2015, the authors found.
US-based Latino consumers, businesses and communities offer demand, cultural influence and cross-border networks that could help expand trade, the authors said. Those advantages remain fragmented and lack scale, limiting opportunities to capture value locally, they said.
Latino-owned businesses increased in number by 7% annually from 2017 to 2023, while growth across the rest of the country was nearly flat, McKinsey found. Latino businesses remain underrepresented in some large export sectors, the authors said.
Mexico accounted for about 66% of US–Latin America trade and nearly 80% of goods imported into the United States through the corridor, McKinsey found. Electronics, services, transport equipment, energy resources and machinery together represented around two-thirds of goods and services traded, the authors said.
The authors found that production links were becoming more integrated and countries’ roles more diverse. Mexico added approximately $126 billion in electronics trade between 2019 and 2025, alongside growth in transport equipment, machinery, and medical and scientific instruments, McKinsey said.
Coordinating investors, businesses, trade institutions and governments could help turn these connections into more successful Latino businesses, ownership and employment opportunities, the authors said. They said private or social-sector initiatives could pursue economic effects similar to those of South Korea’s government-led cultural export model.
