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Mexican economic activity slowed sharply in January, looks to be an anomaly

Societe Generale notes.. January industrial production (and export growth) was disappointing and surprising given thelack of any meaningful trigger for this development.As a result, we estimate growth to have slowed to 0…

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Societe Generale notes..

  • January industrial production (and export growth) was disappointing and surprising given thelack of any meaningful trigger for this development.As a result, we estimate growth to have slowed to 0.9% yoy in January from 3.2% yoy in December 2014. However, we expect this slowdown to prove anomalous.

  • Recent trends in the pace of industrial production (IP) and manufacturing growth have been nearly double their historical averages (since 1999). 

  • Stronger IP growth was helped by stronger US growth and the improving competitiveness of the economy.

  • On the back of a jump in vehicle exports, Mexico's real export growth has surgedimpressively in recent years (except for a brief interruption in 2013).

  • Export-led investment growth should help the economy post near-trend growth this year followed by an improvement next year on strengthening consumption. 

 

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