Banco de México, Mexico’s central bank, said economists raised the median 2026 year-end exchange-rate forecast to 18.39 pesos per dollar, implying a weaker peso view; rate forecasts stood at 6.50% for both years.
The 2026 estimate compares with a median of 17.50 in September. For 2027, the forecast rose to 18.64 from 18.04. A higher peso-per-dollar figure means the peso is expected to buy less against the U.S. dollar. These are estimates for year-end, not current market prices.
Banco de México released the survey Tuesday, Nov. 3, after collecting responses from 40 private-sector analysis and consulting groups between Oct. 19 and Oct. 29.
For headline inflation, the median estimate was 3.88% in 2026, compared with 3.87% in September; the 2027 median was 3.85%, up from 3.82%. Both readings are above the bank’s 3% target and within its 2% to 4% variability range. The median core inflation estimate fell to 3.82% for 2026 from 3.90%, while the 2027 estimate rose to 3.82% from 3.78%.
The survey’s median real GDP growth forecast increased to 1.50% for 2026 from 1.40%, and to 1.83% for 2027 from 1.80%. A separate Citi survey also put its median rate outlook at 6.50% for both year-ends.
The median forecast for the overnight interbank rate was 6.50% at the end of 2026 and 2027, matching the level Banco de México last maintained on Sept. 24. The bank says survey responses do not determine Governing Board decisions. Its next scheduled rate decision is Nov. 5.
