Mexico IP: Stabilizing on better domestic components

Mexico's industrial production increased 0.2% m/m sa in June as a result of a strong recovery in mining (1.1%) and a modest increase in construction (0.4%), partially offset by very soft growth in manufacturing (0.1%). In annual terms, IP increased 1.4%, with manufacturing expanding at 4.2% y/y.

"After this report, we estimate that the June GDP proxy should expand 0.2% m/m sa, setting our GDP tracker at 0.5% q/q sa, below our current forecast (0.9%).However, we will wait for the full GDP report due August 20 to make any adjustment, since the economy has recently been driven by the services sector, and there could be a surprise in either direction", says Barclays.

July data are still mixed. Car production declined 5.8% m/m sa, while oil production expanded 2.0%. In any case, as oil production continues to stabilize and construction gradually improves, the drags that were present in H1 15 could start vanishing in the second half of the year. The question now rests on manufacturing, which might continue to struggle under a still complicated external environment, notes Barclays.