Mexico's industrial production growth slowdown in H1

Societe Generale notes:

Mexican industrial production posted its first negative print (-0.94% yoy) in 13 months in May as exports fell yoy on slow demand growth in the US. As a result, we estimate growth to have slowed substantially to 0.5% yoy in May - the weakest pace since April 2014. The seasonally-adjusted series is expected to show a sequential decline of 0.9% mom and, barring a strong improvement in June, the economy looks set to slow further in Q2 after posting weak growth of 1.6% qoq (annualised) in Q1. This raises the downside risks that the economy could grow below trend in 2015 - as against our current forecast of near trend growth of 2.6%.