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Middle East crude oil exports climbed above pre-war levels on several days in late September, signaling resilient regional shipments despite escalating attacks on vessels around the Strait of Hormuz.
Provisional data from ship-tracking firm Kpler showed crude exports exceeded levels recorded before the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran on September 24 and from September 27 through September 29. Daily shipments ranged between 19.5 million and 22.5 million barrels per day during those periods.
For comparison, Middle East crude exports averaged about 18 million bpd between March 2025 and February 2026, before the Iran war began on February 28. The seven-day moving average reached 18.5 million bpd on October 1.
Kpler's figures include shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea, exports from regional terminals and ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman. Combined exports of crude, refined products, chemicals and other non-gas liquids averaged 22.4 million bpd in the seven days through September 30.
Liquefied natural gas traffic also strengthened, with LNG cargoes leaving the Strait of Hormuz reaching their highest monthly level since February. The data excludes vessels potentially traveling with Automatic Identification System transponders disabled.
Before the conflict, roughly 125 large commercial vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz daily. The strategic waterway handled around 20% of global daily crude oil and LNG supplies.
However, security risks remain elevated. Shipping intelligence firm Marisks reported at least seven tanker-related incidents in and around Hormuz. The VLCC Kazimah III was reportedly struck by an unidentified projectile on October 1, triggering a fire. Its crew was safely evacuated.
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency has reported at least one attack per day in the Strait of Hormuz or Gulf of Aden since October 2.
Marisks warned that rising shipping traffic faces an increasingly unpredictable threat. Intelligence cited by the firm suggests some incidents may involve missiles launched into predetermined engagement areas rather than attacks targeting specific merchant vessels, leaving any ship entering those zones potentially exposed.
