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In 2015, debt issuance by rated banks throughout Latin America will decline again, as it has for the last two years, according to "Latin America Bank Debt Report: Funding Needs Remain Subdued Amid Slow Growth," from Moody's Investors Service.
"Issuance is slowing down owing to a decline in banks' funding needs, partly because the banks issued so much in the years preceding 2013, but also because the region's largest economies decelerated in 2014," said Farooq Khan, a Moody's associate analyst. "Rising domestic interest rates and subsequently declining loan growth have also had their effect, with the prospect of rising interest rates in the US and the uncertainties around the Petrobras investigation in Brazil contributing as well."
Local currency issuance suffered the largest decline, especially in Argentina, where it was down 77%. However, local currency issuance in Brazil, largely unrated, has continued to grow and its volume now surpasses foreign currency debt in the system.
US-dollar denominated rated debt also fell markedly in 2014, by 55%, and Swiss franc issuance fell although to a much lesser extent, just 11%. Only Japanese yen and Australian dollar issuance rose, but their share constitutes only a small fraction, less than 5% combined, of the market.
Furthermore, with the US Federal Reserve expected to raise interest rates in the second half of 2015, demand for Latin American debt could decline. However, loan growth will remain subdued in 2015, as Brazil's economic fundamentals continue to weaken and growth in many other countries in the region slows relative to previous years, weighing on credit demand.
Finally, regulatory measures will have little effect on debt issuance. Both Brazil and Mexico are on track to implement Basel III regulations in full by 2019, while Argentina works on a roadmap for 2016 and Colombia works on further implementation. Moody's expects that the banks will issue little Basel III-compliant contingent capital debt this year, again because of the limited need for additional market funding.
