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Anticipated strong, albeit slowing, auto demand in China and improving demand in the US will offset slowing European sales in 2015-16 and underpin the stable outlook for the global automotive manufacturing industry over the next 12 to 18 months, says Moody's Investors Service in an Outlook report published today.
Moody's report, titled "Global Automotive Manufacturer: US Demand, China Growth to Offset Weakness in European Markets", is available on www.moodys.com.
"Overall, we expect global light vehicle unit sales to grow 2.8% in 2015 and 3% in 2016, slowing from 3.5% growth in 2014," says Yasmina Serghini-Douvin, a Moody's Vice President -- Senior Credit Officer and author of the report.
Moody's expects auto sales in China to rise 6.5% in 2015, lower than its previous projection in December of 7% growth. The rating agency's revised forecast is also down from 2014's sales increase of 7.1%, which fell short of its forecast for 8.1% growth.
Moody's has raised its 2015 forecast for US light vehicle sales growth to 2.8% from its previous projection of 1.5% in December, amid signs of improving consumer confidence and stronger-than-expected sales in December and January. The rating agency expects US auto sales to climb 2.4% in 2016.
The rating agency forecasts growth in European light vehicle sales of 1.8% in 2015 and 1.5% in 2016, down from 5.4% in 2014. In particular, Moody's expects that sales growth will remain low in France in 2015 and in 2016. However, sales should continue to recover in Spain, helped by the Spanish government's renewal of an incentive programme.
