The timing of U.S. artificial intelligence projects could hinge on electricity supply: Morgan Stanley estimates data center developers may face a 32-gigawatt power gap by 2028.
The estimated gap equals about 34% of developers’ power needs. Morgan Stanley’s calculation includes possible electricity from gas turbines, fuel cells and nuclear power. The projected deficit could widen to about 72 gigawatts by 2029.
The timing matters for companies buying computing hardware before facilities have enough electricity to operate it. Cloud operators could have to hold purchased graphics processors while waiting to deploy them, delaying the use of equipment intended for AI projects.
Morgan Stanley said power delays could affect suppliers as well as facility developers. Customers unable to put new hardware to work might delay deliveries or cancel orders. The bank identified memory, optical, analog and power-management components as particularly exposed.
The forecast comes as data centers’ electricity use is expected to rise. By 2030, the facilities could consume 11.8% of U.S. electricity, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory projects. Its scenarios range from 9.5% to 15.3%, depending on assumptions about equipment shipments and power use.
Household electricity costs are a separate question. A working paper examined data-center entry between 2010 and 2024 and estimated that it raised U.S. residential electricity prices by 2.1%, as detailed in earlier EconoTimes coverage of household rates. The researchers linked how costs reach households to utility regulation and cost recovery.
Federal regulators are reviewing how large electricity users connect to regional grids and how related costs are allocated. On June 18, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission directed six regional grid operators to justify their connection rules or propose changes, including provisions intended to protect other customers from bearing those costs.
The commission says responses from five operators are due Nov. 16. Southwest Power Pool’s response is due Nov. 20.
