Tesla CEO Elon Musk said humanoid robots could number at least 100 million by 2031, a projection about a future population that differs from the six-month sales totals used to track the market.
Musk offered the range in a May 18 Forbes interview: at least 100 million humanoid robots worldwide in five years, perhaps as many as 1 billion. At a Sept. 1 Group of 20 innovation ministerial, he gave a 10-year horizon for a 1 billion total. The May interview and September remarks put different timelines on the billion-robot possibility.
Frost & Sullivan estimated 36,000 humanoid robots were sold worldwide from January through June 2026, compared with 35,000 during all of 2025. Its first-half category includes small, wheeled and pre-programmed humanoids. The firm separately counted 6,000 full-size embodied intelligent humanoids sold in the same period. These are sales over six months, while Musk discussed the total number of robots in use at a future point, so the figures are not directly comparable. Frost & Sullivan cited advances in artificial intelligence and components, along with demand for flexible automation, as market drivers. EconoTimes previously detailed the first-half humanoid robot revenue rankings.
Musk has connected his robot outlook to artificial intelligence (AI) advances. At the World Economic Forum in January, he predicted AI could surpass the capabilities of any one person by the end of 2026 or 2027, then exceed humanity’s collective capabilities by 2030 or 2031. At the Sept. 1 meeting, he described AI software, onboard chips and dexterity, particularly the hands, as factors affecting a robot’s usefulness.
Tesla’s third-quarter filing said it was taking steps toward putting its Optimus humanoid into large-scale production. In a discussion of broader manufacturing plans, the company cited staffing availability, component supply and the challenges of adopting new production technologies as risks that could affect its manufacturing expansion.
