The share of workers that have voluntarily quit their jobs has increased to levels just shy of the level seen in the 2004-2006 boom years. The share of workers that voluntarily quit their jobs rose to 2% in January, matc…
The share of workers that have voluntarily quit their jobs has increased to levels just shy of the level seen in the 2004-2006 boom years.
The share of workers that voluntarily quit their jobs rose to 2% in January, matching the cyclical high reached in September, which was the highest since April 2008.
In January there were 1.8 unemployed workers for every job opening, down from 2.6 workers per opening one year earlier.
Nordea Bank notes in a report on Tuesday:
With small companies continuing to report labour market tightening, more workers voluntarily quitting their job and the ratio of the unemployed-to-job-openings declining sharply, wages should soon start to rise at faster rate.
Hence, today's data releases make it even more likely that the Fed will no longer describe its policy intentions as "patient" at the 17-18 March FOMC meeting. And the data keep a June rate hike very much in play. We see the odds of lift-off in June or September as roughly equal.
More important than the timing of initial lift-off will be the pace of subsequent rate hikes, which we continue to expect to be more rapid than is priced in by markets.
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