Mint reported a five-month low in India’s Nifty futures rollover cost as investors assessed reports of possible U.S. action against Iran after the Nov. 3 midterms.
The October figure was 0.29% at the Oct. 27 expiry, down from 0.78% for September, Mint said, citing Aditya Birla Money Ltd. Mint said a lower rollover cost can point to weaker expectations for a market recovery. The metric reflects the premium attached to shifting a futures position into the next monthly contract.
Mint also reported that Vtrender founder Shai Coelho compared the low reading with the May expiry, when traders were concerned about a fragile ceasefire in West Asia.
Dharmesh Bhatt, head of derivatives research at Systematix Institutional Research, said in a note cited by Business Standard that Nifty rollovers stood at 74%, below the firm’s three-month average of 76.3%. Opening open interest contracted 9% to ₹35,427 crore, while Systematix’s cost-of-carry measure fell to 46.7 basis points from 66.2 basis points. Bhatt said the declines suggested the October short overhang had eased, but fresh long accumulation had not emerged. The Systematix and Aditya Birla Money figures are not directly comparable.
The cash index rose on Oct. 29. National Stock Exchange of India data showed the Nifty 50 closed at 22,936.75 points, up from 22,698.85 points on Oct. 28.
The Associated Press reported Oct. 28, citing two diplomats briefed on the matter, that U.S. officials had urged Middle Eastern countries and regional allies to prepare for possible renewed military action against Iran after the election and possible Iranian retaliation. The AP said President Donald Trump had made no final decision, and the White House and U.S. officials declined to comment. In an Oct. 8 Truth Social post, Trump said the United States would not attack Iran before the election but did not address what might happen afterward.
Nirmal Jain, founder of the IIFL group, told Mint that possible fighting after the midterms had made investors cautious, although he considered Indian markets oversold. Jain said elevated oil prices could concern investors about India’s current account deficit and currency, and that lower prices would be needed for a sustained market rally. EconoTimes previously covered traders’ debate over renewed war risk in Brent crude. The U.S. midterm elections are scheduled for Tuesday, Nov. 3.
