Norway's unemployment increase, but very moderately

Unemployment is increasing very modestly, in line with Norges Bank's view. The increase was less than economists had expected. Norges Bank will cut in March, as clearly signaled yesterday, and again in September. Norges Bank gave such a further cut in the autumn a 40% probability

Registered unemployment (including labour market measures) increased by 700 persons in December in line with the trend.

"We had expected an increase by 1500 persons. The unadjusted rate was 3.0% in line with our forecast and consensus", says Nodea Bank.

Norges Bank forecast implies an increase in registered unemployment by about 500-700 persons a month on average this year so this is very much in line with its forecast. Seeing Norges Bank new forecast yesterday it is believed the risk to the growth picture was rather balanced, but that its forecast for unemployment still seemed too low.

Needless to say unemployment increased further in the oil related counties on the west coast (but more moderately than the trend). But more interesting, it is flat to down in the rest of the country.