Nvidia could remain strong for the next two years after Jensen Huang's departure, but faces a harder leadership challenge beyond that, Deep Water Asset Research managing partner Gene Munster said.
The board's priority should be finding a successor with the urgency needed to keep Nvidia competitive in years three through ten, Munster said. He disclosed that he owns Nvidia shares.
Munster and investment manager Dan Ives discussed Nvidia's leadership and the outlook for artificial intelligence on Bloomberg Television's Daybreak, published Nov. 13. Neither identified a confirmed successor or a timetable for an appointment.
Munster linked the performance of successful technology companies to founders who maintain an intense sense of urgency. He said replacing that quality would be particularly difficult after Huang's departure.
“Urgency is not binary,” he said. A successor could still bring urgency to Nvidia, even without the particular drive associated with its founder.
Ives said Nvidia would need an outside candidate to lead it forward. He described the departure as a “gut check moment” and said the company had lacked a succession plan.
Munster doubted that Tim Cook would take the job, saying his commitment remained with Apple. Other potential candidates came up, but the transcript did not establish their identities clearly.
Huang's public presence would also be difficult to replace. Munster cited six meetings with President Donald Trump last year, four major company conferences in one year and 16 interviews with television outlets.
Munster expected Huang eventually to appear at another company. He did not identify a business, role or date for such a return.
The discussion turned to export controls, restrictions on selling advanced technology abroad, and allegations that Nvidia chips had reached China through Megaspeed. The interview did not establish those allegations as findings.
Ives expected investigations into Nvidia chips and Megaspeed. He nevertheless put Nvidia's technological lead over competitors at two to three years and expected it to retain its dominant position.
Munster also expected investigations and said they could hurt Nvidia's business somewhat. He saw a broader risk in the diminished influence of Huang, who had helped investors become comfortable with artificial intelligence.
Munster said his continued ownership of Nvidia reflected his view that adoption of artificial intelligence remained early. He cited Amazon's growth outlook, without giving an exact growth figure.
Ives expected spending on artificial intelligence to continue, putting it at $3 trillion to $4 trillion. He gave no period for that spending, leaving the scale of the commitment over time unresolved.
