OPEC and EIA differs on development of non-OPEC supply

OPEC sees the oil market as being significantly oversupplied. The call on OPEC looks set to total 29.23 million barrels per day on average this year, and to climb to 30.12 million barrels per day next year. According to its own monthly report, OPEC is currently producing 31.51 million barrels per day based on secondary sources. OPEC mainly blames the ongoing oversupply for the price slide in July - and thus to all intents and purposes blames itself. What is also remarkable is that OPEC anticipates even higher non-OPEC supply in 2015 than it did previously, says Commerzbank. 

By contrast, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has further lowered its estimate of US crude oil production this year and next. According to the EIA, it looks set to increase by 100,000 barrels per day less than previously thought in 2015, and in 2016 to fall by 250,000 barrels per day more sharply than previously forecast, notes Commerzbank. According to the EIA's Drilling Productivity Report, US shale oil production will decline for the fifth consecutive month in September on account of production cuts at Eagle Ford and Bakken.