Democrats hold a 52%-44% advantage over Republicans among likely voters in a national congressional ballot test, offering a snapshot of voter preference before the Nov. 3 midterms but no seat forecast.
Marist conducted the survey for NPR and PBS News on Oct. 19-20 among 1,289 registered voters. On the question about congressional candidates in respondents’ districts, likely voters favored the Democrat 52% to 44%. The margin of error for likely-voter results was 3.8 percentage points.
Among registered voters, the poll put Democrats ahead 52% to 42%. In September, those figures were 53% to 41%. In October, 44% of likely voters said their congressional vote was mainly against President Donald Trump, while 21% said it was mainly for him and 35% said he was not much of a factor.
The election map limits what a national ballot test can show about control of Congress. USAGov says House members face district elections every two years, while statewide Senate contests cover roughly one-third of the 100 seats at a time. Past midterms have shifted seats in both directions: House History, Art & Archives records a 41-seat Democratic gain in 2018 and a 64-seat Republican gain in 2010.
Economic issues also featured in the polling. Cost of living was the leading issue for 34% of likely voters in the Marist survey. In a separate AP-NORC Center poll conducted Oct. 8-12 among 1,119 adults, 85% cited the economy and 84% cited cost of living among the most important issues for their vote.
Maryland Gov. Wes Moore told The Associated Press that opposition to Trump may fade as a political force. “Anger against Trump is going to be a waning emotion. We’ve got to deliver,” Moore said. EconoTimes previously examined possible effects of a change in congressional control on Trump’s remaining two years.
In an election analysis published Nov. 1, NPR said close contests could leave control of Congress undecided for days or weeks. Voters are scheduled to cast ballots Tuesday, Nov. 3.
