Britain’s Office of Gas and Electricity Markets (Ofgem) approved a deal preserving 25 million cubic meters a day of import capacity, improving a modeled winter margin while leaving actual deliveries dependent on market conditions.
The agreement, approved Oct. 22, keeps the Belgium-to-Britain route operated by Interconnector Limited (INT) at 61 million cubic meters a day. On implementation, the agreement provides 36 million cubic meters a day of firm capacity and 25 million of interruptible capacity; Ofgem says the firm share may increase over the agreement’s term. Without the deal, the planned level was 36 million. The Netherlands-connected BBL route adds 22 million, bringing the two links’ combined capacity to 83 million.
Ofgem set demand at 408 million cubic meters a day in its stress case, using the 95th percentile of peak-demand days since July 2017, and tested a simultaneous outage of the liquefied natural gas terminals at Milford Haven. At INT’s lower capacity, the regulator estimated total supply capability of 403 million, five million below its demand benchmark. Applying the restored capacity to the same inputs gives a calculated 428 million, or 20 million above demand. Those figures describe a modeled scenario, not gas that is secured for delivery.
National Gas’s separate outlook for winter 2026/27 projects peak demand of 493 million cubic meters a day on a 1-in-20 winter day and total supply capability of 592 million. The company says its assessment shows positive margins even under severe stress. Its demand estimate is higher than Ofgem’s, and the published assessments do not reconcile their different baselines.
Ofgem says output from Britain’s domestic gas fields is declining and import capability has also fallen, citing technical limits and weaker commercial incentives. The agreement keeps a route available for imports but does not procure gas or ensure shipments; market conditions will affect whether gas flows. Ofgem also says further government-led measures may be needed for medium- and longer-term security. The decision follows Ofgem’s earlier action to preserve capacity on the Belgian link.
Ofgem is consulting on a proposal for National Gas to recover the agreement’s costs. It estimates a charge of about £1.19 per domestic gas meter account per year for five years; customers who do not use gas would not pay. Responses are due Nov. 20, with a final decision still pending.
