The Cook Political Report shifted Ohio's governor race toward Democrat Amy Acton on Oct. 23, but polling conducted before or mostly before a campaign video appeared does not establish whether the controversy changed voter support.
Cook changed its rating from “Toss Up” to “Lean Democrat.” The report said Acton had already been gaining ground and that the reaction to the video added to the case for its new assessment. The rating is a forecaster's judgment, not a measure of voter movement caused by the ad.
Marist surveyed 1,176 registered voters from Oct. 15-18, before the video appeared online Oct. 19. Among likely voters, Acton led Republican Vivek Ramaswamy 50% to 43%. The margin of error for likely voters was 4.5 percentage points.
A VoteHub/Verasight survey of 623 registered voters, conducted Oct. 1-20, showed Acton at 46% and Ramaswamy at 45% among likely voters. The result fell within the poll's 4.2-point margin of error. VoteHub/Verasight said most interviews took place before the video appeared, so the survey could not isolate its effect.
The one-minute video features Acton's estranged mother, Donna Arthur, disputing Acton's account of living in a tent as a child. Ramaswamy confirmed on Oct. 20 that his campaign made the video. His campaign said it would spend $4 million promoting it on television and digital or streaming platforms.
The ad drew criticism from Ohio Republicans. Gov. Mike DeWine urged the campaign to remove it, calling it “deeply, deeply troubling,” while saying he would keep his endorsement of Ramaswamy. Sen. Jon Husted said he would not have run the ad.
Acton's campaign released a response video on Oct. 20 featuring her brother, Phil Stearns. Ohio's general election is scheduled for Nov. 3.
