Oil Prices Head for 20% Monthly Surge as Middle East Supply Risks Persist

Oil prices climbed on Friday and remained on track for a monthly gain of more than 20%, supported by ongoing Middle East geopolitical tensions, tighter fuel supplies, and a sharp decline in U.S. crude inventories.

Brent crude futures rose 1.6% to $90.46 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 2.1% to $85.37 per barrel. Despite being set for weekly losses after early optimism over potential peace talks, both benchmarks are poised to post their strongest monthly performance in months.

Market sentiment improved after ship-tracking data indicated a slight increase in tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz, easing fears of a prolonged disruption to one of the world's most critical oil shipping routes. ING analysts noted that actual oil transfers across the strait could be higher than visible data suggests because many tankers may have disabled their tracking systems.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia held discussions with representatives from 43 countries to establish a maritime coalition aimed at protecting commercial shipping in and around the Red Sea. The initiative follows heightened threats from Iran-backed Houthi militants, whose attacks have disrupted key trade routes.

Oil markets also remained supported by recent military exchanges between the United States and Iran, along with concerns that the regional conflict could spread further. An unidentified drone strike on gas vessels at Egypt's Damietta port near the Suez Canal earlier this week reignited worries over the security of another vital energy transit corridor. The incident also raised concerns about potential disruptions to the nearby SUMED pipeline, a major route for transporting crude and refined products from the Middle East to Europe.

In addition, attacks on refineries across the Middle East and Russia have tightened supplies of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, keeping refining margins elevated.

Further supporting crude prices, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that commercial crude inventories fell by 7.2 million barrels to 404.5 million barrels during the week ended July 24. The larger-than-expected draw pushed U.S. stockpiles to their lowest level since 2018, reinforcing concerns that escalating geopolitical tensions could further tighten global oil supplies.