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Oil in Global Economy Series: Key highlights from IEA’s oil market report

Last night, International Energy Agency (IEA) released its monthly oil market report. Here are the key highlights from that report,

  • After strong second quarter demand growth of 2.2 million barrels per day (Mbpd), IEA reduced its demand forecast for 2017 and 2018 by 0.1 million barrels per day citing higher prices and mild early winter temperatures. It now sees demand increase of 1.5 million barrels per day in 2017 to 97.7 million barrels per day and an increase of 1.3 million barrels per day in 2018 to 98.9 million barrels per day.
     
  • Strong non-OPEC supply growth is forecasted. According to IEA, non-OPEC supply growth will be 0.7 Mbpd in 2017 and 1.4 Mbpd in 2018, thanks to higher U.S. output. Global oil supplies rose by 100,000 barrels per day in October to 97.5 Mbpd, down 0.47 million barrels per day compared to last year, with OPEC supply sharply down from high 4Q16 levels.
     
  • As per IEA, OPEC crude output was down 80,000 barrels per day in October due to lower supplies from Algeria, Iraq, and Nigeria. Output was32.53 Mbpd, lowest since May this year and was down 830,000 barrels/day compared to a year ago. Compliance with supply cuts for the year-to-date is 87 percent. For October, compliance was at 96 percent.
     
  • OECD commercial stocks have declined 40 million barrels in September. The stock has declined below 3 billion barrels for the first time in two years. Global stocks dropped by 63 million barrels in 3Q17, the second quarterly draw since 2014.
     
  • In the first quarter of 2017, global oil demand was 96.57 million barrels per day, while supply was at 96.64 million barrels per day.
  • Market Data
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