Philippines trade balance likely improved on sluggish import growth

The Philippines will release February trade data on 28 April. A small trade surplus of USD 100mn is expected , versus the USD 750mn deficit in January, which translates into a smaller contraction of 6.6% y/y, versus 14.2% in January. This is likely due to a favourable base effect. 

Import growth was probably dragged down by lower energy prices, which reduced energy imports. 

Standard Chartered notes :

• we expect electronic-goods imports to increase by double digits for a third consecutive month, and to continue their strong performance. 
  
  
• We expect the trade balance to benefit from lower import growth, although sluggish export growth may constrain the upside near-term.