Polish CenBank's policy rate likely to continue until 2016

The Polish CenBank left monetary policy unchanged yesterday. - NBP had earlier clearly signalled that the easing cycle had reached its end, hence this was no surprise.

The Polish CenBank's policy rate currently stands at 1.5%, and likely to remain unchanged until end-2016, states Commerzbank. 

Q3 Inflation Report, expected next Monday, will provide an adverse case forecast scenario assuming Grexit, but that the forecasts will not be much worse than under the baseline scenario, adds Commerzbank. 

According to Commerzbank, "Greece has little direct impact on Poland, although we do not rule out much larger 'indirect' impact through broader market movements around EM, depending on how orderly or disorderly the process turns out to be. We stick with our view that EUR-PLN will average 4.15 over the coming year, but with pronounced volatility in both directions around this level."