Polish economic growth likely to have confirmed flash data in Q2 2018, investments to have rebounded

Polish second quarter economic growth data is set to be released this week. According to an Erste Group Research report, the second quarter growth dynamics is unlikely to see any major revision. The flash estimate had shown that the economy had grown 5.1 percent year-on-year and 0.9 percent sequentially.

The GDP structure is likely to confirm that domestic demand was the main growth driver, rising by 6.8 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2018, with private consumption sustaining strong growth of about 5 percent underpinned by the tight labor market.

Even if  in the first quarter the gross capital formation had risen 21 percent year-on-year, the biggest contribution came from inventories, and thus in the second quarter investments are expected to have shown further recovery. Solid construction and industrial output data in the second quarter underpins this view.