Polish economy likely to grow 4.3 pct in 2019, private investment growth unlikely to see major change

Rising worries around the performance of the global and European economies have not translated into Polish GDP dynamics, noted Erste Group Research in a report. The fourth quarter 2018 GDP deceleration was marginal, in spite of the visible softening of market sentiment and slowing down industrial output growth. Therefore, stronger impacts of the softening global outlook in the first half of 2010, said Erste Group Research.

The fiscal stimulus kick-off is likely to give additional boost for the economy through a positive effect on the disposable income of households. Tight labor market also underpins strong growth of private consumption.

“We see it at 4.3 percent this year and FY19 GDP growth at 3.8 percent, with risks to the upside”, said Erste Group Research.

Investment activity has recovered, mostly in the public sector, underpinning the overall growth of investment, which came in at 7.4 percent. Private investment growth has continued to be disappointing and is unlikely to see any major change in the investment landscape.

“The inflow of EU funds should further support public investment spending and keep investment growth this year at a slightly lower level”, added Ertse Group Research.