Polish industrial output rebounds in August, economy likely to grow 3.1 pct this year

In August, Poland’s industrial production recovered following a severe drop in July. Output was up 3.3 percent sequentially, as compared with 10 percent decline recorded in July. However, the improvement was mainly an illusion. After adjusting for seasonal and working days, industrial output rose 2 percent month-on-month, which is just 1 percent above output level during the start of 2016.

In other words, in spite of the solid headline reading, the Polish manufacturing seems to have stagnated since the start of 2016. This development is in line with the subdued PMI, and underpins the sub-consensus GDP growth projection of 3.1 percent in 2016, said Commerzbank in a research note.

“The data are no reason to fundamentally turn bullish on the zloty as it offers no reason for the CB to turn hawkish”, added Commerzbank.