Polish industrial production growth likely slowed in July; PPI expected to have increased

Polish industrial production growth is likely to have slowed in July. According to a Societe Generale report, the industrial output is expected to have growth 3.5 percent year-on-year in July, a slowdown from June’s growth of 6 percent year-on-year. The sequential growth is expected to have come in at -3.8 percent. On an annual basis, manufacturing growth of 2.2 percent is anticipated to have mostly driven the headline figure.

The nation’s PMI had fallen to 50.3p from 51.8p, its lowest level in 22 months. This was because of reduced export orders and output. But the July data is affected by a negative calendar effect, with two fewer working days than one year ago, noted Societe Generale.

Meanwhile, the country’s producer price index is likely to have gained from -0.7 percent in June to -0.2 percent year-on-year in July. In sequential terms, the index is expected to have remained unchanged. Amongst the various components, prices of mining are expected to have dropped by -0.7 percent month-on-month, whereas prices of manufacturing possibly remained the same. The Brent oil price was 6.6 percent lower on monthly basis in July; however, this also shows FX depreciation, particularly against the USD.

“PPI could be above zero in August due to a statistical base effect but there have been several revisions this year," stated Societe Generale.