Polish nominal retail growth likely remained solid in December, jobless rate to have risen slightly

Polish nominal retail growth is expected to have remained solid in December. According to an Erste Group Research report, the retail sales are likely to have grown 7.9 percent on a year-on-year basis. The consumer sentiment has been falling for the past three month, however, retail sales have been resilient to these developments so far.

Tight labor market conditions and the dynamic growth of wages have underpinned private consumption. Nevertheless, lower consumer sentiment and decelerating growth of employment imply a bit lower dynamics of retail sales growth.

“After this publication, we will have a complete set of monthly indicators for 4Q18 and we will present the final GDP nowcast for 4Q18. It currently points to GDP growth at 4.8 percent y/y in 4Q18”, said Erste Group Research.

Meanwhile, the Polish jobless rate is expected to have risen marginally to 5.9 percent in December, compared to the 5.8 percent print seen in the prior month. The labor market situation continues to be favourable.