Polymarket said it is using election-focused trading surveillance across its U.S. and international platforms ahead of Tuesday, Nov. 3, as the company says distorted odds may shape views beyond its markets.
The company said its internally developed system, PolyGraph, combines company models with blockchain and trading data, open-source research and public reports. Its election checks seek signs of price manipulation, coordinated or inauthentic trading, insider activity, order-book abuse, eligibility violations and unreliable sources for settling contracts.
Polymarket said investigators compare automated alerts with other sources and consider whether activity might reflect market-making, automated trading or promotion. It also adjusts alert criteria to each market’s trading patterns and reviews older activity on both platforms to look for conduct its existing checks may miss.
Shana Bautista, Polymarket’s head of global intelligence and investigations, told NPR that her team had pursued investigations involving dozens of bets tied to the midterms. NPR reported the team has 16 members and receives hundreds of alerts daily. The network separately reported, citing a person familiar with the investigations who was not authorized to speak publicly, that at least two cases had been referred to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
In a March 26, 2026, filing to the CFTC, QCX LLC described itself as a designated contract market registered with the commission. QCX operates Polymarket’s U.S. venue.
NPR described limited federal policing of election markets, leaving platforms to carry much of the monitoring. It also reported lawmakers’ concerns about risks to the democratic process and cited Kalshi’s earlier surveillance efforts and restrictions on campaign staff as precedents.
Rajiv Sethi, an economics professor at Barnard College at Columbia University, told NPR that market perceptions may influence how a race is viewed. The U.S. midterm elections are scheduled for Tuesday, Nov. 3.
