Polymarket’s market put a 30% implied chance Wednesday that Anthropic’s initial public offering would raise less than $65 billion, a reading that reflects trader expectations about the offering’s size.
At 9:51 a.m. ET (14:51 UTC) Nov. 11, the implied probability had fallen 49% over the previous 24 hours. The threshold concerns the final value of shares in the formal offering, rather than Anthropic’s company valuation.
Shares sold by existing shareholders count only when included in the formal offering. The calculation excludes overallotment shares and funds from a concurrent private placement.
The 30% reading reflects Polymarket’s pricing of that defined outcome; it is not an offering value published by Anthropic. The contract’s lowest fundraising bracket applies if Anthropic has no completed IPO before 11:59 p.m. ET on Dec. 31, 2027.
EconoTimes previously covered a separate Polymarket market on Anthropic’s listing deadline, which asks whether the company lists by Nov. 30, 2026.
