Prediction-market fees climbed above $1.5 billion in the third quarter, 1kx estimated, as the sector’s expansion coincided with new commercial ties between major platforms and U.S. professional basketball.
In its Q3 report, 1kx estimated fees at more than $1.5 billion, roughly 19 times the year-earlier estimate. It separately said prediction markets settled about $55 billion in Q3 2026. The figures measure different things: platform fees and the value of markets settled.
1kx said the sector was heavily concentrated in Kalshi and Polymarket. Most prediction-market fees are not traceable onchain, it said. The report’s chart also cites Allium and DefiLlama data and Robinhood filings.
The report said continuous markets, parlays and opinion markets make trading volume track fees less closely. 1kx pointed to the 2024 U.S. election as a precedent for prediction-market popularity and expects business hedges and insurance products to contribute to future demand.
The Philadelphia 76ers announced a multiyear agreement with Kalshi on Oct. 30, naming it the team’s official prediction-market partner. The 76ers were the first NBA team to name an official prediction-market partner.
The NBA had designated Kalshi and Polymarket as preferred prediction-market exchanges on Oct. 26. Its framework limits which NBA-related markets can be offered, bars league and team personnel from trading on NBA events, and requires information sharing about suspicious trading. The provisions address market availability, personnel trading and the reporting of suspicious activity.
