Private consumption likely to mainly drive Polish economic growth, further rebound in investment expected

The Polish economy grew strongly in the third quarter, rising 5.1 percent year-on-year. Given the solid positive surprise, the GDP structure would be of great interest. According to an Erste Group Research report, private consumption is expected to be the pillar of growth and a further rebound of investment is likely.

Nevertheless, it is unlikely that a rebound of investment is the factor behind the surprise. Therefore, the rise in inventories contributed positively to such solid growth in the third quarter.

“After the release of monthly indicators for October, our now-cast model suggests that the growth dynamics should remain robust at around 4.8-4.9 percent y/y in 4Q18. Based on the GDP structure, we will revise our FY18 and FY19 growth forecast accordingly”, added Erste Research Group.