An Institut du Québec (IDQ) study found that output per resident outside Montreal nearly matched the level outside Toronto by 2022, while Montreal remained well below Toronto, showing that Quebec’s economic gains were uneven.
IDQ’s Nov. 10 report put real GDP per capita outside Montreal at 99% of the level outside Toronto, up from 91% in 2011. Quebec overall reached 89% of Ontario’s level in 2022, compared with 86% in 2011. The metropolitan comparison ends in 2022, the latest year available. The measure compares economic production with population; it does not measure household wealth.
From 2011 to 2022, real GDP outside Montreal grew 22%, close to the 20% increase outside Toronto. Population grew 7% in the rest of Quebec and 14% in the rest of Ontario. Over the same period, real GDP per capita rose 14% outside Montreal and 5% outside Toronto. IDQ attributes much of the regional catch-up to the slower population growth outside Montreal.
The two metropolitan economies had different growth patterns. Toronto’s real GDP rose 33% and its population grew 14%, compared with increases of 27% and 9%, respectively, in Montreal. Per-capita output grew at similar rates: 17% in Toronto and 16% in Montreal. Montreal’s level was about 80% of Toronto’s in both 2011 and 2022.
The report also points to differences in industry mix. High-value-added services made up 29% of Montreal’s GDP in 2024, compared with 23% in other metropolitan regions and 16% outside metropolitan regions. Advanced manufacturing accounted for 43% of Montreal’s manufacturing employment in 2025.
IDQ also identifies education and population trends as challenges for Montreal. In 2025, 43% of Montreal residents ages 25 to 64 had at least a bachelor’s degree, compared with 52% in Toronto. The institute projects the working-age population will shrink 6% in Montreal from 2025 to 2030, versus 2% in Toronto.
IDQ recommends preserving access to international talent, raising Quebec’s proposed threshold of 35,000 permanent admissions and targeting cuts to temporary immigration more selectively. The institute says the next provincial immigration-planning process is an opportunity to address talent needs, but gives no date for it. IDQ said BMO provided financial support for the study.
