The number of U.S. homebuyers estimated by Redfin fell to its lowest point in records dating to 2013, while Miami had the widest seller surplus among 50 metros it tracked.
Redfin counted 18,909 sellers and 7,304 buyers in the Miami metro. The seller surplus rose from 134.5% in August. Nashville posted a 152.3% surplus, followed by Houston at 134.6%. Those percentages measure how much seller estimates exceeded buyer estimates in each metro.
Across the United States, Redfin estimated 1,510,784 sellers and 928,892 buyers, a surplus of 62.6%. The buyer estimate was the lowest in records dating to 2013, while the seller estimate reached its highest level since March 2020. In 41 of the 50 metros, seller estimates exceeded buyer estimates by more than 10%, the threshold Redfin uses to define a buyer’s market. The label describes the estimated balance between sellers and buyers, not completed sales.
Redfin seasonally adjusts active listings recorded in multiple listing services (MLS) to estimate sellers. It estimates buyers using the typical time from a shopper’s first home tour through closing, along with current listing and pending-sale information. Redfin says the figures may be revised and do not count completed transactions.
The company attributed lower buyer participation to high housing costs and economic uncertainty. It also pointed to robust homebuilding in the Sun Belt as a source of added inventory. Redfin said people who can afford a home and feel secure in their jobs are better positioned to negotiate when estimated sellers outnumber buyers.
“This is a buyer’s market born out of caution, not strength,” said Asad Khan, a senior economist at Redfin. The company compared buyers’ negotiating power with conditions following the 2008 financial crisis.
