Redfin estimated 123% more U.S. condo sellers than buyers in September, the widest gap in its records dating to 2013, giving shoppers who can meet ownership costs more bargaining power.
The estimated buyer count fell 2.5% from August to 88,460, its lowest level in Redfin’s records. The seller estimate rose 0.9% to 197,248, leaving about 2.23 sellers for every buyer. A year earlier, the seller surplus was 95.5%.
Ownership costs are part of the strain on demand. Redfin cited insurance premiums, homeowners association fees and special assessments as burdens for condo shoppers, particularly in Florida and Texas. Borrowing remains costly: Freddie Mac’s weekly survey put the average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage at 7.18% as of Nov. 5.
The national median condo sale price was about $339,000 in September, down 0.8% from a year earlier. About 37% of condos sold that month had undergone a price reduction, compared with 16% five years earlier. A condo that sold in September typically spent 63 days on the market before going under contract, up from 35 days in September 2021.
The imbalance was sharpest in some large metropolitan areas. Redfin estimated 459% more condo sellers than buyers in San Antonio, 322% more in Houston and 274% more in Miami. Nassau County, New York, was the only one of the 50 large metro areas it classified as a condo seller’s market.
Condo sellers also faced a wider gap than sellers in the overall U.S. housing market. Redfin estimated a 62.6% nationwide seller surplus across all housing types in September, as covered in earlier reporting on Miami and the national market. In September 2021, by contrast, Redfin estimated 25.1% fewer condo sellers than buyers.
Redfin senior economist Asad Khan said buyers now have more homes to consider. That advantage depends on whether they can afford the continuing costs of condo ownership.
The buyer figures are estimates, built from Redfin’s data on the typical span between a first home tour and closing, along with multiple listing service data on active listings and pending sales. Its seller figures reflect active listings. Redfin accounts for seasonal patterns in the monthly series and may revise its estimates.
Redfin is scheduled to release its October buyer-seller balance update Nov. 12 at 1 p.m. ET.
