A pair of contracts assigned 16.5% reported odds to the Jan. 1, 2027, deadline and 5.5% to the earlier Nov. 1, 2026, date for a Saudi airspace closure.
The Jan. 1 figure was 11 percentage points above the Nov. 1 figure. Since each quote applied to a separate deadline, the difference compares two contract outcomes rather than a change in one contract over time.
The percentages describe market pricing for future outcomes. They do not confirm a Saudi government decision to close its airspace or show current flight disruption.
The account carrying the figures was published at 12 a.m. EDT Friday, Oct. 16 (04:00 UTC). That was the publication time; no separate quote time was given. The account did not identify the trading venue or provide the exact contract terms.
