Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz were nearly double Gulf bypass exports in September 2026, as HSBC Group Chief Executive Georges Elhedery forecast the waterway could lose relevance within five years, Reuters reported.
Elhedery made the remark at HSBC’s Future Forum in Dubai on Oct. 20, Reuters said. The outlet quoted him describing Hormuz as potentially “redundant.”
The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that 10.9 million barrels a day passed through the strait in September 2026, compared with 5.6 million barrels a day on Gulf bypass routes. Those figures are observed flows, rather than the maximum capacity available on either route.
For 2025, the IEA estimated that 20 million barrels a day of crude oil and oil products moved through Hormuz, about one-quarter of seaborne oil trade. In a February 2026 assessment, it put available crude export capacity on Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates’ bypass routes at 3.5 million to 5.5 million barrels a day. That capacity estimate measures something different from September’s recorded exports.
Aramco said its East-West Pipeline reached a daily limit of 7 million barrels in the first quarter of 2026, supporting additional exports from Saudi Arabia’s west coast. For other cargo, AD Ports Group said it expanded inland movements from Fujairah and Khor Fakkan to Khalifa, Jebel Ali and Sharjah during the second quarter of 2026. The company added 400 trucks and increased Etihad Rail service frequency.
Liquefied natural gas (LNG) presents a separate constraint. The IEA estimates that Hormuz handled more than 112 billion cubic meters of LNG in 2025, nearly one-fifth of global LNG trade. In February 2026, the agency identified no alternative route for LNG from Qatar or the UAE to reach global markets.
The disruption also affects costs beyond exporters. The IEA links high diesel prices to higher costs for goods and pressure on real incomes.
DP World announced an agreement in principle with Fujairah Ports Authority in July 2026 covering two terminals. The company estimates construction will take about 24 to 30 months after work begins, but has not announced a start date.
