Australian employment fell in September on a seasonally adjusted basis, while Reuters reported a sharp decline in market-implied odds of another Reserve Bank of Australia rate rise.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported that employment decreased by 39,300 people, or 0.3%, to 14,782,700. Unemployment stood at 4.7%. A separate trend estimate rose by 15,700 people, or 0.1%. The ABS said its trend series is designed to show broader labor-market conditions and cautioned readers against treating short-term changes as decisive.
Reuters said the implied chance of an RBA rate increase in November dropped to about 9% from 32% after the release. The December estimate fell to 28% from 56%. Those probabilities reflect market pricing reported by Reuters, rather than an official forecast from the central bank.
The RBA raised its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.60% on Sept. 29 in a unanimous decision, its fourth increase this year. The bank said it would continue to assess incoming data and could raise rates further if needed to bring inflation sustainably back to target.
Minutes from that meeting, issued before the jobs data, also described pressure on households. The RBA pointed to home-price declines that exceeded expectations and a steep drop in new housing-loan commitments as signs of softer housing conditions. Scheduled mortgage payments were near 10% of household disposable income, close to the 2024 peak. The minutes said inflation was more likely to cause financial pressure for lower-income renter households.
FXStreet’s Oct. 16 snapshot showed AUD/USD at 0.6941 at 1:40 p.m. ET (17:40 UTC), below its intraday high of 0.6967. FXStreet put the U.S. Dollar Index at 101.90 after an intraday low of 101.58. Reuters later reported the index at 101.87, down 0.17%, and said markets assigned an 83% probability to the Federal Reserve holding rates at its October meeting.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said consumer prices rose 0.6% in September and 3.7% from a year earlier. The U.S. Census Bureau reported retail and food-services sales of $745 billion, up 0.8% from August and 6.3% from a year earlier. The sales estimate was adjusted for seasonal and trading-day effects but not for price changes.
The Federal Reserve meets Oct. 27-28. The RBA meets Nov. 2-3, with its policy statement scheduled for 10:30 p.m. ET Nov. 2 (03:30 UTC Nov. 3).
