Robert Half forecasts U.S. starting salaries will rise modestly in 2027, while its survey finds many managers offering pay above planned ranges as employers compete for scarce skills, including artificial intelligence expertise.
In the survey, 57% of managers said they were offering new hires salaries above their planned ranges. Among employers making those offers, 87% cited specialized skills as a top reason. Separately, 72% of employers said they offer higher pay for relevant AI skills, and 42% said they offer more for AI expertise than for other technical skills.
Technology leaders reported a stronger focus on AI: 92% said they offer more for relevant AI skills, while 60% said they offer more for AI expertise than for other technical skills. Robert Half projects average starting-salary growth of 2.1% for technology roles in 2027, compared with 1.9% across the seven professional fields in its guide. Those projections cover people starting a role or joining an employer, not raises for current staff.
The guide's salary benchmarks draw on compensation for candidates Robert Half has placed, checked against job-posting data and recruiter assessments. Its findings about hiring practices come from separate surveys. The salary figures represent starting base pay and exclude bonuses and annual merit increases.
Separate U.S. research by Indeed Hiring Lab found advertised pay since 2021 rose about 46% in occupations most exposed to AI, compared with 25% in the least exposed. That analysis tracks pay listed in job postings by occupation, rather than extra pay for a candidate's AI skills. Indeed said some of the increase reflects a shift toward more senior postings, and the gap between occupations with higher and lower AI exposure began widening around 2024.
Robert Half links higher offers to competition for scarce expertise and AI adoption. Candidates with sought-after skills may benefit from higher offers, while employers bear the added cost when offers exceed planned budgets. Robert Half's survey describes employers' reported pay practices, while Indeed's analysis tracks advertised pay across occupations.
