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S&P Analysis Flags Small Deals as Barrier to African Private Finance

The African Development Bank estimates an annual financing gap of $68 billion to $108 billion; OECD figures show bilateral aid to sub-Saharan Africa fell in 2025 and is projected to decline again in 2026.

Updated 2 min read
Workers prepare a concrete overpass at a road construction site in Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire. / EconoTimes.ai
Workers prepare a concrete overpass at a road construction site in Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire. / EconoTimes.ai

BusinessDay reported Nov. 11 that S&P Global Ratings recommended bundling African infrastructure projects into larger vehicles, which could make them more appealing to institutional investors.

In separate published analysis, S&P identifies small transactions, fragmented local capital markets and a lack of harmonized standards for blended-finance structures as barriers to private investment. Blended finance uses public or philanthropic money to help attract private funding. S&P links the current financing effort to the 2015 Addis Ababa financing conference.

Those barriers matter against a substantial investment shortfall. The African Development Bank estimated in its 2025 review that Africa needs $130 billion to $170 billion annually for infrastructure, leaving a financing gap of $68 billion to $108 billion a year. The estimates do not represent a measured 2026 shortfall.

The aid picture adds context, but the OECD figures do not quantify how much aid reductions contributed to the infrastructure gap. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) said bilateral net official development assistance from its Development Assistance Committee members to sub-Saharan Africa fell 26.3% in 2025, based on preliminary data. It projects an 11.6% decline in 2026. The OECD says that would be a third consecutive annual decline for the region. These figures cover bilateral aid, not all development funding.

An African-led initiative illustrates one approach to financing larger projects. In October 2025, the Alliance of African Multilateral Financial Institutions and the African Union Development Agency–NEPAD announced the AAMFI Infrastructure Financing Facility. The groups set proposed initial financing at up to $1.5 billion, with up to $100 million for project preparation; further institutional and technical steps were still required. Africa Finance Corporation said in a February 2026 release that the facility had formally launched, referring to it as the Africa Infrastructure Financing Facility (AIFF).

Larger pooled deals may improve investor access, while financing choices can affect public budgets and underserved communities. The OECD warns that blended-finance arrangements heavily reliant on senior debt and sovereign guarantees may narrow governments’ fiscal room and increase debt vulnerability. It also cautions that poorly targeted investment can bypass poorer countries and underserved communities.

The OECD expects to publish activity-level aid data in December 2026, which could confirm or revise its preliminary 2025 figures.

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