U.S. Social Security trustees modeled a 17.3% payroll tax on covered earnings as one way to sustain Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI) through 2100 if substantial action waits until 2034.
The rate is an illustration, not a policy adopted by Congress. The current combined rate is 12.4%, with employees and employers each paying 6.2%. The modeled increase is 4.9 percentage points. In 2026, Social Security tax applies to earnings up to $184,500.
The timing of action changes the rate in the trustees’ calculations. Another scenario, with a 16.65% payroll tax starting in January 2026, would have kept the combined program solvent through 2100. Neither rate has been enacted.
The Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund faces a nearer deadline than the combined program. Trustees project that it will use up its reserves in the fourth quarter of 2032. After that point, its incoming revenue is expected to pay 78% of scheduled retirement and survivor benefits.
The Disability Insurance (DI) Trust Fund is legally separate. If the two funds were combined, the trustees project their reserves would last until the third quarter of 2034, when incoming revenue would pay 83% of scheduled benefits. Transfers between the funds would require a change in law.
The trustees’ 2025 report had placed OASI reserve depletion one quarter later, in the first quarter of 2033. The latest outlook reflects lower assumptions for births and net immigration, as well as legislation expected to reduce income tax revenue from Social Security benefits.
The trustees urged lawmakers to act early enough to phase in tax increases or benefit reductions and spread their effects across more generations. The report gives no date for a congressional financing decision.
