A projected shortfall in Social Security’s retirement and survivor fund is becoming a U.S. campaign issue before Nov. 3, with trustees estimating reserves will be exhausted in 2032.
The 2026 report from the Social Security and Medicare Boards of Trustees places depletion of the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund in the fourth quarter of 2032. The fund pays retirement and survivor benefits. Under the report’s intermediate assumptions, program income would then cover 78% of scheduled OASI benefits; the projection does not mean all payments would stop.
In a hypothetical calculation combining the legally separate OASI and Disability Insurance (DI) Trust Funds, depletion remains projected for the third quarter of 2034, with income covering 83% of scheduled benefits. The DI Trust Fund alone is projected to pay full scheduled benefits through at least 2100.
The Social Security Administration (SSA) projects the number of retired workers will grow about 60% over the next 50 years. Its estimates put the number of workers per beneficiary at 2.6 in 2025 and 2.3 in 2035. The trustees also assume birth rates and net immigration will be below historical levels. They said earlier action could preserve more policy choices and give lawmakers time to phase in changes.
The payroll-tax cap limits Social Security taxes to the first $184,500 of earnings in 2026. Employees and employers each pay 6.2% on covered earnings, while self-employed workers pay 12.4%. In a Bangor Daily News opinion column, Maine Senate candidate Troy Jackson called for removing the cap and increasing benefits, saying the country should put Social Security on “firmer financial ground by scrapping the cap.”
Social Security also drew attention among older voters in Maine. AARP found that 81% of voters age 50 and older surveyed considered the program important to their vote. The poll covered 982 likely voters statewide from Sept. 20-22, 2026.
The Washington Post reported that Social Security appeared in campaign ads across competitive races. In more than a dozen of the 63 races it reviewed, spending topped $1 million on ads mentioning the program; the analysis covered more than 8,000 ads aired through Oct. 5. The general election is scheduled for Tuesday, Nov. 3.
