An International Organization for Migration (IOM) and Danish Refugee Council outlook estimates that 874,319 people in Somalia face displacement risk between October and December 2026, with floods accounting for most of the projected risk.
Flooding makes up 92% of the estimate. The projections identify nearly 229,000 people in Beletweyne and about 82,000 in Gaalkacyo as facing displacement risk. IOM says the total covers the quarter, but the risk is expected to vary over the period.
IOM’s report cites a seasonal outlook from the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) for above-normal rainfall. The outlook also anticipates differences in rainfall by location and month as El Niño strengthens.
IOM reports that 14.4% of the $16.62 million it needs for flood preparation and response is secured. The planned assistance would reach more than 517,000 people, the agency said.
The report points to the 2023 El Niño floods, which displaced about 1.2 million people. Displacement was highest in late October and November that year, IOM said, and returns began as water levels fell in December.
IOM warned that intense rain and rising rivers could deepen the strain on communities already hit by drought and displacement. Flooding could harm crops, reduce water quality and limit access to medical care. The agency urged international donors to support warning and evacuation planning, temporary shelter, safe water and sanitation.
