South Africa’s inflation accelerated to 4.5% in September as a surge in fuel costs lifted transport prices, putting the latest reading above the central bank’s tolerance band.
Statistics South Africa reported the annual rate on Oct. 21, after readings of 4.4% in August and 4.3% in July. The September figure was the highest since June, when inflation reached 5%. Consumer prices rose 0.4% from August, following no monthly change in August.
Transport prices increased 10.8% from a year earlier, up from 8.8% in August. The category added 1.5 percentage points to headline inflation, the largest contribution among categories, and accounted for 0.3 percentage point of the monthly increase. The fuel price index rose 6.2% from August and 27.9% from September 2025.
Fuel costs also showed up in fares. Diesel prices were 46% higher than a year earlier and petrol prices were up 25%. Passenger transport prices rose 12.3%, including increases of 14.1% for long-distance bus fares and 13.8% for minibus taxi fares, according to Statistics South Africa.
A measure of inflation excluding food and non-alcoholic beverages, fuel and energy eased to 4% from 4.1% in August. Goods inflation picked up to 4.1% from 3.3%, while services inflation slowed to 4.9% from 5.1%. Housing and utilities rose 5.2% and contributed 1.3 percentage points to the headline rate. Food and non-alcoholic beverages increased 1.2%; food alone rose 1%.
September’s headline rate exceeded the South African Reserve Bank’s 3% target and the top of its 2% to 4% tolerance band. The bank adopted the 3% point target in 2025, replacing a 3% to 6% target range. In September, it raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 7.25%, effective Sept. 25.
The bank’s September forecast, issued before the latest inflation data, projected inflation above 5% later in 2026 and early in 2027, mainly because of fuel prices. South African Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago said the bank saw “upside risks to inflation.”
Statistics South Africa expects to release October inflation data Nov. 18. The Reserve Bank’s next policy announcement is scheduled for Nov. 19 at 8 a.m. ET.
