South Africa's current account deficit to highlight ongoing vulnerability
South Africa's current account (C/A) deficit for Q4-2014 will be released on Tuesday. With mining and manufacturing both hobbled by the electricity crisis, there has been little evidence of an S.Africa's export recovery …
South Africa's current account (C/A) deficit for Q4-2014 will be released on Tuesday.
With mining and manufacturing both hobbled by the electricity crisis, there has been little evidence of an S.Africa's export recovery since then. The traditional year-end improvement in the C/A income balance may provide relief, but it is unlikely to be enough.
Standard Chartered notes as follows on Monday:
We forecast a still-wide deficit of 5.5% of GDP (market consensus: 5.8%). While most oil importers will have benefited from lower oil prices in Q4, South Africa's Q4 trade deficit more than doubled relative to the same period a year prior.
With the South African rand (ZAR) under pressure, a wide C/A deficit will highlight its ongoing vulnerability to a reversal of capital flows. Even against a weak growth backdrop, import growth will likely outpace export growth according to Treasury forecasts.
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