Polls ahead of Spain’s Nov. 29 election project a parliamentary majority for the conservative People’s Party (PP) and Vox combined, even as one survey shows Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s Socialists gaining ground.
The 40dB survey for El Pais put the Socialists at 29.9%, a rise of 1.8 percentage points from its previous poll. That left them 2 percentage points behind the PP. The poll projected about 190 seats for the PP and Vox in the lower house, which has 350 seats.
A SocioMetrica survey published by El Español put the two parties at about 200 seats combined and the Socialists at 108. A Sigma Dos poll published by El Mundo estimated 199 seats for the PP and Vox and 105 for the Socialists. All three projections indicate that the PP would need Vox to secure a majority.
The surveys drew different samples. SocioMetrica collected 5,460 online interviews and reported a 3-percentage-point margin of error. The 40dB poll gathered 2,000 online responses and had a 2.2-percentage-point margin of error; Sigma Dos surveyed 4,172 people and reported a 2.1-point margin.
SocioMetrica also estimated a net shift of 832,000 voters from left to right. El Confidencial published an IMOP survey focused on voter movement rather than seat counts. Reuters said it found Socialist voters less loyal to their party, while the PP retained more voters and attracted some backing from Vox.
Reuters reported that efforts by parties to the Socialists’ left to form a joint candidate list failed last month. It also said polls assigned the Broad Front 10 to 15 seats, while Podemos risked being shut out of parliament.
Reuters reported that campaign debate was expected to cover immigration, housing and corruption. The outlet said fallout from October’s fatal train crash, which prompted Transport Minister Oscar Puente’s resignation, may feature prominently in the campaign.
Reuters reported that campaigning is due to start Nov. 13, ahead of the Nov. 29 vote.
