Standard Chartered Bank: Korean Treasury Bonds to outperform
Quotes from Standard Chartered Bank We expect KTBs to outperform, based on our rate-cut expectation in Q2. Their downward momentum halted in February and the 3Y KTB yield increased by 27bps to 2.48% from its low of 2.21%…
We expect KTBs to outperform, based on our rate-cut expectation in Q2. Their downward momentum halted in February and the 3Y KTB yield increased by 27bps to 2.48% from its low of 2.21% on 3 February. However, the yield fell again to 2.35% after Governor Lee's slightly dovish comment in February.
Given Korea's historically low inflation and current growth uncertainty, we see room for the yield to decline further from current levels.
Given the record-low KTB 3Y yield - almost at the policy rate - and the unanimous 'no change' vote at the February MPC meeting, we expect any rally in short-end yields to be limited from here. However, medium- to longer-tenor rates will likely outperform on local factors and the global policy easing trend.
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